It would be a reach to say that the Pleasanton Ridge Open Space is a well-kept secret. In fact, if you live in or near Pleasanton, you no doubt are well aware of this special sanctuary in the heart of suburbia. Miles of pristine trails, breathtaking views, and abundant wildlife make it a special place to get away for an hour or two (or three, or four). I was just hiking the ridge about a week ago, and a full grown coyote ran across the trail 200 feet ahead of me. I have also seen fox, deer, wild turkeys, and all sorts of raptors. The only downside is dodging all the mountain bikers zipping past you.

The Chronical has an article on the ridge that does a decent job of describing it. Since we’re at it, here is more information on the Pleasanton Ridge parklands from the East Bay Regional Park District.

The only downside is that it might make it too popular, and instead of hearing “mom, look at that cool coyote!” you might be inclined to hear “mom, look at those two mountain bikers that just crashed!”. But be that as it may, we are lucky to have such a great escape so close to home.

I recently went to Zillow.com to find a “zestimate” for a home in The Preserve area of Pleasanton. For those not familiar with The Preserve, it is a high end subdivision of approximately 100 homes nestled in the hills of West Pleasanton, surrounded by acres of open space and ridgelands. It has always been a very popular neighborhood because of it’s scenic quality and convenient location.

Anyway, the home I checked was over 4000 sq ft, and the “Zestimate” came in at around $1,575,000, which is easily $200,00 or more less than it’s probable value today. I was shocked that it was so low, since the last sale in the neighborhood was $2,175,000. And there is a new home in Kolb Ranch Estates, which is in The Preserve, that just sold for $2,530,000, and it is approx 4500 sq ft. Now, one key point is that The Preserve is on the norther border of Pleasanton, and Dublin is just on the other side of I-580.

Low and behold, the Zillow estimate used comparable sales from Dublin to arrive at the “Zestimate”. Anyone who is in real estate, or has more than a passing interest in Pleasanton real estate, this is “Ztupid”. Pleasanton homes, especially on the high end, command much higher prices than Dublin homes do. In fairness to Zillow, they don’t claim to provide appraisals, and they recognize that there are flaws in their algorithm.

This is just another illustration that while Zillow.com is a fun site to visit, and a good source of conversation, it is a mathematical guess, and not the same as an appraisal, as many of the determinates of value (view, upgrades, neighborhood differences) are not easily quantifiable. Zillow works better with cookie-cutter subdivisions without variances in view, location, and lot size. I have seen several buyers use Zillow as a bible, and put faith in it’s ability to accurately predict the value of a home. And I have seen several scenarios where Zillow has been off, sometimes way off. I recently had a house in Fremont that Zillow pegged the value at $1,100,000. It sold and closed for $1,500,000. It was a custom home with a large, private lot, and it was surrounded by smaller, less expensive homes. Not even close.

So be careful about putting too much faith in Zillow and other online valuation tools, and get some input from an experienced, professional real estate agent who can show you comparable sales that are actually relevant. It’s only your money…..

While we are seeing some positive signs in the early going this year for the Pleasanton CA and Tri-valley real estate market, we have had a slate of negative news nationally, including

* Sales of new homes in the US slumped to a 13 year low in January
* The median price of new homes dropped 15.1 % from January 2007
* Orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods dropped 5.3% in January
* Producer prices, a indication of wholesale prices, jumped 1% in January, and were up 7.4% in the last 12 months, a very troubling sign indicating that inflation may be picking up steam
* Consumer confidence dropped in January to the lowest level in 5 years.

Well, you get the idea. While the real estate market in Pleasanton, Dublin, San Ramon, and Danville seems to be showing some life, the national picture is not good. And this onslaught of negative news does impact people’s confidence in the market, and their outlook in general.

One thing is certain… if you have a secure job, and equity in your home, it is a great time to move up, especially since the lower end of the market is showing (finally) some stabilization, and the upper price ranges are sluggish. There are opportunities galore in the market place, and some very good deals to be had. If you have a long term perspective, it is a fabulous time to explore moving up. The difference in cost between your current home and a move-up home has never been less.

And now, back to our regularly scheduled Pleasanton area housing recovery.

I just finished a video that features interviews with residents of Pleasanton CA. In this video, various Pleasanton residents talk about what they like best about the city, what they like doing here, and why they like living here. I hope you will find it interesting.

Feel free to pass it on to anyone who might find it interesting. And no, I have no plans to give up my day job.

The question everyone wants to know in the Pleasanton, Dublin, San Ramon, and Tri-Valley region is “when are we going to hit the bottom of the real estate slump?” This seems to be the source of endless debate among both real estate professionals, as well as the general public. There are no clear answers, and for every argument that we have a ways to go in this downturn, there can be an equally convincing argument that the bottom is getting near.

So what do you think? You can register your opinion on my poll at The 680 Blog. Give it a look and see where your opinion falls.

One Million Dollars. It’s a lot of dough.

So what does $1 Million buy in housing? Thanks to the real estate correction, the answer is “more than it did 3 years ago”. We all know how expensive the Pleasanton, Dublin, San Ramon, and Tri-Valley real estate markets are. Forbes Magazine shows us what $1 million buys you in 15 different markets across the U.S.

Slide Show: What you get for $1 Million in the U.S.

No real surprises here I guess. If I only liked humidity and bugs the size of small dogs…

Pleasanton and Dublin CA area residents are well aware of the traffic gridlock that usually greets commuters heading East towards Livermore after 3:00 on weekday afternoons. At times, it seems that walking would be faster than navigating your way through the mess that is I-580.

I am happy to report that the traffic on I-580 seems to be much improved, thanks to the installation of metering lights on the on-ramps. Last week, I had to travel from Pleasanton to Livermore late in the afternoon (around 4:45 PM). I prepared for the usual gridlock and frustration by bringing along a new age CD and practicing deep breathing exercises. What I found was a pleasant surprise to me. Traffic was actually moving… even at 4:45 PM on a Wednesday. Oh sure, it slowed down in spots, and there was the usual assortment of obnoxious people passing on the right, etc. But overall, it did not resemble the usual late afternoon traffic fest on I-580.

Here are some photos I took while driving that afternoon. As you can see, there is actually space between the cars!

P.S., I don’t recommend trying this. Only years of practice as a multi-task expert enabled me to shoot these pictures while driving with my knees, talking on my cell phone, and listening to relaxation tapes at the same time.

Great. Not only do we have to contend with the sub-prime crisis, the foreclosure crisis, inflation, the price of oil, and the middle east, now comes word that the Burmese Python has established breeding colonies in the U.S., and experts now predict that they could eventually occupy as much as 1/3 of the country, including the bay area and parts of California.

These pythons are currently found in Florida, and experts expect to see them in other states, although it will take a while. They are usually released into the wild by pet owners who no longer want them. (Note to people who have pythons as pets: If you decide you no longer want it, take it to the humane society, or the zoo. Or call Pythons Anonymous. Don’t be an a-hole and just release it into the wild).

But not to fear. Here is a paragraph from the story in USA Today:

The Burmese python is not poisonous and not considered a danger to humans. Attacks on humans have involved pet owners who mishandle and misfeed the snakes, Snow says. In Florida, they eat bobcats, deer, alligators, raccoons, cats, rats, rabbits, muskrats, possum, mice, ducks, egrets, herons and song birds. They grab with their mouth to anchor the prey, then coil around the animal and crush it to death before eating it whole.

Okay, I’m no wildlife expert, but how can any animal that can eat a bobcat, deer, or alligator whole not be a threat to humans? I’m sorry, but if someday I am hiking the Pleasanton Ridge, and I see one of these things swallowing a deer whole, I’m pretty much heading the other way…. rapidly.

Information is power.

If you are buying a home, and you find a home you are interested in, I always suggest that you talk to the neighbors the first opportunity you get. We all know the classic “nosy neighbors” who make it their business to know everyone else’s business. Gladys Kravitz on Bewitched and any of the characters on Desperate Housewives are prime examples. While these people can be very annoying to live near, they can be your best source of information when you are evaluating a neighborhood. You see, neighbors have information, insights, and knowledge that comes from actually living in the neighborhood. They know far more about traffic patterns, kids in the neighborhood, what the residents are like, crime, nuisances, pending changes or developments that might impact the neighborhood, barking dogs, and other factors you might not consider. Go by the property on a weekend day, or after work and see if you can catch some of the neighbors mowing their lawns or in their yards. Don’t be afraid to knock on their doors and ask for their input. It is far better to find out about potential problems or drawbacks before you close escrow. Generally, neighbors are very forthcoming with information, and will point out things you should know.

One point of caution, however. It is probably best to do this after you have an accepted contract on the house, especially in a hot market. Otherwise, you run the risk of letting on just how interested in the neighbor’s house you are. And if the neighbor has a friend or someone they know interested in the house too, they might alert them to the fact that you are considering making an offer. Or they might tell the seller how interested you seem, which could inflate the seller’s expectations. So play it safe and
visit the neighbors after you have an accepted contract. And one side benefit is you might learn who not to share information with after you move in.

If you have been following the Pleasanton real estate market these past few months, you know that bears are not the only animals in hibernation. Home buyers have been hibernating as well, forced into hiding by a seemingly unending wave of bad news about the national real estate market. Oh sure, buyers made occasional inquiries and even wondered into an open house or two, but for the most part they have been content to sit on the sidelines and see where things go.

Well, it looks like the hibernation might be ending. Home buyers are starting to venture out. Traffic is up at open houses, and more and more buyers are starting to explore some of the opportunities in the market. There were 15 pending sales the first 10 days of February, compared to 24 pending sales for the whole month of January. Even more telling is some of the pending sales activity. 10 of the 15 were on the market for 35 days or less. And a couple of these homes even had multiple offers.

Now, before we get ahead of ourselves and declare an end to the housing slump we need to keep this in perspective. Early spring often sees a jump in activity. And certainly the recent reductions in short term rates by the Fed, along with the increase in the FNMA conforming loan limits, have helped some buyers off the fence. It remains to be seen how we fare in Pleasanton as we get into the Spring months. It is still VALUE that rules the day. Homes must be in great condition, prepared for the market, and most importantly priced to attract attention from finicky buyers. But the early signs are certainly encouraging…